Powerful Chart !!!!

CESC : Good Days are back !!?!

This stock has been on my radar for the past couple of months, if you are following me on Twitter, you would have noticed, I had shared the chart on CESC at regular intervals. However, looking at the last few week's price action and overall chart formation I believe the stock is ready for the serious rally from here and which encouraged me to write a Blog on the same. 

The first chart shown below is the Monthly chart of CESC, from the chart it is evident that stock has been trading in an Ascending Channel for last more than 11 years. The bottom formed last year was placed near the lower end of the channel. Also, recently stock registered breakout from falling resistance trendline which is a bullish signal and hints price to scale higher towards the higher end of the upsloping channel trendline.

 

Another interesting setup was observed in the DMI indicator. In the last 2 instances, whenever DI+ line has crossover DI- line and post that the ADX line surpasses 20 levels or is above 20 readings, the price has witnessed strong had sharp upside momentum. A similar setup has been witnessed recently and if the setup unfolds like earlier, the price likely to see a powerful and strong rally in the coming weeks and months. (Notice the last 2 weeks' price action, swift and powerful).

The second chart attached below is the weekly chart of CESC which highlights the stock saw a sharp selloff in early 2020 and post that formed a bottom in late march 2020 and then delivered a strong rally for 4 weeks out of 5 weeks. Thereafter stock turned sideways, lackluster, and continued to trade in a range for more than 11 months, and in early June price registered a decisive breakout from prolonged consolidation accompanied by a surge in volumes. 

 

The breakout has occurred with above average volumes which provide further confirmation and increases the reliability of the breakout. Moreover, looking at the Price-Volume behavior it has been observed, the volumes bars are bigger on the advancing day while small on the down days which is a bullish sign and compliments bullish view on price.

The next chart displayed below is the Ratio chart of CESC and Nifty 50, these charts help to identify the strength in the stock compared to the Index. The Ratio chart has multiple positive triggers which hints that the stock is likely to outperform the benchmark index in the coming weeks and months.

The ratio has reversed strongly hitting the multi-month demand zone which also coincides with the lower end of the Downsloping channel trendline which is a bullish signal. Aswell, RSI has surpassed the falling trendline and MACD as given bullish crossover after a good of amount of time which compliments bullish on price and indicates the stock has a high probability to outperform the Nifty 50.

Thus, from the above Technical Studies, I believe good days are back and stock to scale higher in the coming weeks to come. On the higher side stock has the potential to move higher towards 860-920-1000 levels in short to medium term time frames. While on the downside strong support is placed near 770-740.

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STAY SAFE - STAY HEALTHY 

Contrarian Bet - Looks like stock ready to Rock !!!!!!

SUNTV : SUN SET TO RISE !!?!!! 

I hope all of the readers are doing well and safe in this pandemic scenario.

This is my 41st blog post and I believe the readers are getting Value and to learn new aspects of the Technical analysis and new ways to read the price action. Before going on to the stock analysis, I would like to thank all the readers for the support and I am so happy to share that I have managed to cross a milestone of 1 Lakhs view in a short span of time. Thank you again and keep sharing your love and support :)

This week the stock I have selected is SUNTV which has been underperforming for the last couple of years and I believe the stock is at the cusp of a new beginning and set for a trend reversal. The detailed analysis has been shared below.

The chart attached below is the weekly chart of SUNTV which highlights the stock has been under pressure from Jan 2018 - March 2020, where price experienced a disastrous decline from 1100 to 260 levels. The price printed a low around 260 in March 2020 and post then till date, the price has managed to recover about 30-35% of its entire fall from 2018.

The process has formed a wide Bullish inverse Head and Shoulder pattern and is at the cusp of the breakout. The follow-up in the coming sessions will provide confirmation of the price pattern. Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern are generally considered bullish reversal pattern and mostly forms at the bottom of the bearish trend. The momentum Indicator RSI, has registered Range swift to higher readings which throws a bullish signal and compliments the bullish view on price.

The next chart attached below is the Ratio chart of Nifty Media and Nifty. It is evident from the chart that the Ratio chart has been declining for the past couple of years. The underperformance seems about to get over and we see a sign of reversal hereon. At the bottom, the Ratio has formed a Morning Star Candlestick pattern with positive follow-up action. Also, RSI has developed bullish divergence and has given breakout from Bullish inverse Head and Shoulder pattern which compliments bullish view on price.

The third chart attached is the Ratio chart of SUNTV/NIFTY.  It is evident from the chart that the Ratio has dropped to the key support zone and has been consolidating near the support for the past couple of weeks. The Ratio chart suggests that if the Ratio takes support and climbs higher, SUNTV will outperform the Nifty going forward. RSI as well been throwing bullish signals as we see RSI has developed bullish divergence against the Ratio and inching higher from the support zone.

Thus, from the above Technical Studies, I believe SUNTV shall rally higher and outperform the Benchmark index in the coming weeks and months. The view discussed above if unfolds on the expected line I believe the stock has the potential to climb higher towards 620-680-750++ in short to medium term. On the downside, strong support is placed near 520-490 levels. 

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BIG BREAKOUT !!

Concor Ltd- Long awaited 6 years consolidation breakout.... 

This stock has been on roll for the last couple of months. The stock witnessed a sharp and strong rally where price rallied from 350 to 600 plus in a matter of few months. The sharp move has led the price to hit new life this month. The outperformance in the stock may continue ahead. The basis and technical studies have been discussed below.

The chart attached below is the monthly chart of CONCOR which highlights the breakout from the long sideways range. This year has been a great year for the stock so far and looking at the technical setup i believe stock likely to do well in the upcoming months. The stock price experienced a strong rally from Aug 2013 to Jun 2015 where prices rallied from 200 to 620 which is a fantastic move. However, post that the stock underwent consolidation which continued for almost 6 years, and this month price registered breakout from the same has surpassed the multi-year supply zone of 620-635 which is a bullish signal for a medium-term trend.

The breakout from prolonged consolidation indicates the stock has entered into a new trading range and the price likely to stage higher in the coming weeks and months. The positive point which provides confidence and increases the reliability of the breakout is the Price-Volume action. The Big size and above-average volume bars with rising price trends indicate big players showing interest at the elevated levels and such behavior displays strong strength in the trend. 

The second chart shown below is the ratio chart of CONCOR/NIfty which generally helps to gauge the strength in the stock in comparison to the Benchmark Index. After analyzing the absolute chart of the stock it is also important to have a look at the relative chart for further confirmation and to increase the odds in our favor. 

The ratio chart has reversed sharply from the support zone where historically ratio has found the support has rallied higher. The sharp move in the ratio from the support zone compliments a bullish view on price and indicates the stock likely to outperform the index in the coming weeks and months to come.

Thus from the above analysis, I believe CONCOR is likely to do well in the coming weeks and the view discussed above if materializes well on the expected line, the stock has the potential to test 750-825-910 levels in the short to medium term. While on the lower side, the strong support zone is placed around 630-600. 

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At the Cusp of new Bull-Run !!!!

SunPharma Inds : Multiple Bullish Trigger on Long Term Chart... 

The Pharma Stocks are back in momentum after staying sideways for a couple of weeks after the decent rally from the lows. Last year Pharma sector was one that showed strength when the Benchmark index and other broader markets were facing the heat. Going ahead I believe this sector will continue to outperform the benchmark index and continue to witness strength. However, for this week, the stock I have chosen from this space is SunPharma, based on the different Technical studies which we shall discuss ahead.

The first chart shown below is the weekly chart of SunPharma which shows the stock was trading in Descending parallel channel for last more than 3 and half year and this year stock witnessed a breakout from the prolonged descending channel which is a bullish signal for a medium-term trend. Post the breakout price has been consolidating near the upper channel line and constantly finding support near the same. Also, recently price registered breakout from multi-week consolidation pattern which is a bullish sign for short-term trend and hints at resumption in prior trend.

From the above chart, it is evident that there is a Golden Crossover in the Moving Averages which adds further confirmation and increases the reliability of the breakout. The Golden Crossover has been witnessed after a good amount of time which is a bullish signal for a medium-term trend and indicates strength and momentum in the stock trend. 

After analyzing the Absolute price charts I did some further studies in the Relative Chart of Nifty Pharma and Sunpharma to get more confidence over the analyses. The Relative charts are in line with the Absolute price chart and signalling strength in the overall pharma sector and Sunpharma which have been shared below.

The chart shown below is the Relative chart of NiftyPharma and Nifty, the relative helps us to understand the strength in the underlying sector compared to the Benchmark index. As stated earlier Pharma sector was the one which showed the strength when Index was facing the heat and from the chart, we can observe the same. The relative chart shows that probably it has completed wave 2 recently and has entered into wave 3. Initially, wave 3 has more leg to complete from hereon which indicates the outperformance of the Nifty Pharma likely to continue ahead if this analysis unfolds on the expected lines. 

After studying the Price chart of SunPharma and the Relative chart of NiftyPharma it is also important to dig more into the chart of underlying stock v/s the stock sector. The next chart displayed below is the relative chart of SunPharma/NiftyPharma. This is important because it helps to select the particular stock from the following sector which can outperform the Sector and its peers. 

The Relative chart of SunPharma/NiftyPharma highlights that ratio was trading into the descending channel from last more than 6 years and recently its has registered breakout from the prolonged descending channel which is bullish signal for medium-term trend and signals henceforth, SunPharma is likely to outperform the NiftyPharma which was not the case since last many years. 

Thus from the above Technical studies, I believe the Pharma sector shall continue to show momentum and strength in the coming weeks and months. And SunPharma aswell shall do well and likely outperform the Nifty Pharma and Benchmark Index in weeks to come. Going ahead if the view unfolds as per the expectations, the stock has the potential to scale higher to test 715-777-850 in the short to medium run. On the downside, the support is placed around 620-585 levels. 

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Multi-Year consolidation breakout.

Ambuja Cements - Long awaited 7 years consolidation breakout.... 

The Cement sector stock has been on roll and most of the stock has witnessed a breakout on the long-term chart. Almost all stocks from this space have an attractive and promising chart setup and indicate after long hibernation mode this sector stocks are ready for some good upmove in the coming weeks and months. There are a couple of stocks from this space that have a bullish chart and one such stock which I choose this week is Ambuja cement, the technical studies ahead have been discussed below.

The chart attached below is the monthly chart of Ambuja Cements which highlights the breakout from the long sideways range. The last year has been a great year for the stock where the price rallied from 180 to 300+ levels. The stock has been in the sideways range from last more than 7 years and this year price has surpassed the multi-year supply zone 275-290 which is a bullish signal for a medium-term trend.

The breakout from prolonged consolidation indicates the stock has entered into a new trading range and the price likely to stage higher in coming weeks and months. The positive point which provides confidence and increases the reliability of the breakout is the Price-Volume action. The Big size and above-average volume bars with rising price trends indicate big players showing interest at the elevated levels and such behavior displays strong strength in the trend. 

The second chart shown below is the ratio chart of AmbujaCem/NIfty which generally helps to gauge the strength in the stock in comparison to the Benchmark Index. After analyzing the absolute chart of the stock it is also important to have a look at the relative chart for further confirmation and to increase the odds in our favor. 

The Ratio chart as well has been in moving into the parallel channel for the last many years and recently its has reversed taking support around the lower end of the channel and going forward it is expected to scale higher minimum to test the median line of the channel. Also, near the bottom, RSI has developed bullish divergence which compliments bullish view and indicates price to outperform benchmark index in coming weeks and months.

Thus from the above analysis, I sense Ambuja Cement is likely to do well in the coming weeks and the view discussed above if materializes well on the expected line, the stock has the potential to test 350-387-444 levels in the short to medium term. While on the lower side, the strong support zone is placed around 287-275. 

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Stock for FY 2021-2022 !!!

Pidilite Inds - Stock of FY 2021-2022 ....!!!! 

In late December 2020, I have shared a post highlighting Nifty FMCG could the star sector for 2021. The sector is performing on the expected line and reiterate my view, one must focus on this sector which has a high potential and probability to outperform the benchmark index. If u missed or haven't read the post here is a link 

CNXFMCG : Breakout from Multi-Month Consolidation !! 

From a similar space, the stock which shows strong potential to perform well in FY 2021-2022 is PIDILITE INDS based on the overall chart structure and relative strength which we shall discuss ahead as we progress to the post. 

The first chart attached below is the weekly chart of Pidilite Inds, which shows the stock is forming series of Higher High and Higher low which defines the Uptrend in the stock. From Aug 2020 to early Jan 2021 stock witnessed a strong and steady rally surpassing its previous supply zone of  1700-1660 and printing new life highs. However, post that price turned sideways witnessing price and time correction which is quite normal to see after a strong runup. The most important and positive point which indicates strong strength in price the consolidation happened above its previous supply zone and with the least retracement (less than 38.2% of its previous rally from 1307 to 1842). 

From the above chart, it is evident that recently price gave a breakout from the consolidation pattern which is a bullish signal and indicates price to attract fresh momentum and likely to resume its prior trend. The indicator attached below is Directional Movement Index (DMI) which is complimenting the bullish view on price. Historically it has been observed when DI+ line rises and sustains above 20 the price sees a strong upside trend and following the historical instances currently DI+ line has surpassed above 20 levels and looking at the chart structure it is expected to sustain above the same. Thus if history repeats we shall witness strong upside momentum in the coming weeks.

The other chart attached below is the Relative chart or Ratio chart of Pidilite Inds and Nifty. This chart generally helps the strength in the stock compared to the index. If we overall take of the chart its clearly shows a strong uptrend and has formed series of Higher high and higher low. Apart from that, the interesting observation I witnessed in the ratio chart is that it has dropped to an important Moving average support where historically it has provided strong support and ratio has bottomed out near the same. Thus if the history repeats and the Ratio chart forms a bottom a near the same we can expect the stock price to outperform the Benchmark index in coming weeks.

Thus from the above Technical Studies, my insight is Pidilite Inds likely to have better FY 2021-2022 and stock to scale new highs in the following year. The view discussed above if unfolds well on the expected line the stock has the potential to rally higher towards 2030-2200-2550 levels. On the lower side, the strong support is placed near 1760-1680 levels. 

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Momentum Days are back !!!!

Lincoln Pharma - Set to challenge its previous all-time high levels !?!!

This stock has been on my radar for the last couple of weeks as chart structure signals good strength and promising price action The stock has shown strong momnetum this week and its looks like the sideways consolidation post strong move is about to end and the price is ready to hit the roof.

As shown in the chart below, it is evident that the price witnessed the monster rally from August 2014 - Jan 2016, where the price increased multi-fold from 35 to almost 300 levels. However, post that the stock has turned sideways and from last many years has been trading in a wide range (130-300). 

Analyzing the overall chart, the strong and positive signal is that the big consolidation has taken place above its previous multi-years resistance zone. Generally, such setups are bullish in nature and increase the probability of breakout from the range on the higher side. If the consolidation breakout occurs on the higher side (which is expected to happen) this would lead the price to enter the new trading zone and price to scale further higher. 

The next chart attached below highlights the bullish price pattern formations. The stock registered breakout from Descending Broadening Right Angle price pattern which continued for about a year. The breakout occurred around Aug 2020 with the formation of a wide Bullish Candlestick pattern and with supportive volumes which increases the reliability of the breakout.

Post breakout from the said pattern price witnessed some rally and then turned into hibernation mode which seems like a Triangle pattern. This week price has given a breakout from the triangle pattern with the surge in volumes. Thus, it hints price has absorbed its previous sharp rally move and has gathered the strength to scale further higher to challenge its previous all-time high levels.

The next chart attached below Displays, Moving Averages and Technical Indicators to gauge the momentum and strength in price trends. From the chart, it is evident that price surpassed and trading comfortably above 20/50/100/200 Moving averages which signal a bullish trend in the short to medium term. The first technical indicator shown is ADX DI+-, which displays a stronger trend in price as the DI+ line has given positive crossover from DI- line, and trading above 20 levels. Also, recently ADX line has given crossover from DI- line and facing northward which is a bullish sign and compliments the bullish view on price. The momnetum indicator, RSI has also given a breakout from the bullish pattern which hints at bullish momnetum in price. 

Thus following the above technical studies, I believe the stock more room the stage higher and potential to defiance its previous all-time high levels. Thus, the view discussed above unfolds well as per expectations the stock has the potential to rally higher towards 285-310-360 in short to medium-term time horizon. On the lower side, the support is visible around 244-232 levels while any close below 217 levels would negate the above analysis. 

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One smallcap $tock to watch out for !!!

TRIVENI ENG - PROMISING CHART SETUP !!!! 

The stock witnessed a multifold rally in Jun 2015 - Aug 2017, in this period price rallied from 15 to 105 which is a phenomenal move for the stock price. However, after that stock failed to continue its outperformance and the trend turned bearish. After printing the high in Aug 2017 and till present, the stock has done nothing in terms of return. The stock has been languishing in the sideways range for the last 2 years. The long underperformance in the stock price is likely to end and the stock shall commence a strong uptrend in the coming months.

The chart attached below is the weekly chart of Triveni which demonstrates the stock price was trading in prolong probable Triangle pattern for the last 5 years. The stock registered a decisive breakout from the same with the formation of a wide bullish candle and surge in volumes which is a bullish signal and compliments bullish view on price. If the pattern unfolds as per the expectations, the price has the potential to challenge its previous Multi-Year high of 108 levels. 

The breakout from the upper trendline has occurred after multiweek consolidation near the higher of trendline which increases the reliability of the breakout and adds more weightage to the resistance trendline. 

Another chart attached below focuses on the price pattern for better clarity and understanding of the price action. From the chart, it is evident that price has been consolidating in the wide range of 50-55 points i.e from 30-85 levels for the past 3 years. Also, from last many weeks price seen trading in rectangle pattern near the upper end of the wide range which hints price seems gathering the strength for the up move to commence. However, the previous peak price made a strong attempt to break the ceiling and enter into the new trading range. For further confirmation of the breakout, I have used the Heiken Ashi candle instead of the Japanese candlestick. Going forward it is significant for the stock price to provide follow-up action and price to close above the wide range in the Heiken Ashi candle. 

The next chart attached displays the Indicators which helps to identify the Volatility, Momentum, and Strength in stock trend.

The chart shows price has registered Bollinger Band squeeze breakout on the higher side which signifies volatility expansion on the higher side which compliments bullish view on price. Furthermore, MACD has reversed from the neutral zone and has given a bullish crossover which is a bullish signal and indicates momentum in price. The last indicator is the ADX indicator with DI+/- lines, which denotes, earlier DI+ has given upward crossover to DI- line and has reversed from 20 levels with ADX line facing northward which indicates strength in price. 

Thus following the above technical studies, I believe the stock likely to attach fresh momentum and gather more strength as the price surpasses and closes above 90 levels. As discussed above the stock has the potential to challenge its previous high of 105levels and above that 128-155 are the next levels to chase in medium to the long term time period. While in case of correction, 83-77 levels showcase the strong support area. Any close below 70 levels, shall negate the above analysis. 

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At the Cusp of Long-Term Uptrend !!!!

Schneider Electric : Bullish Patterns Breakout on weekly chart !!!

The stock had witnessed a humongous rally from Aug 2013 - Jun 2015, where price rallied from 55 to 240 levels. Such a tremendous move was seen in less than 3 years which is an exceptional move for the stock price. However, post that stock has remained under the shadow of bears for about 6 years

The stock gave up all its earlier gains and continued to tumble lower for almost more than 6 years. The long ongoing downtrend seems near the end and the bull rally in the stock shall commence going forward. There are multiple triggers on the charts which are signaling a potential turnaround in the stock trend. 

The first chart attached below is the weekly chart of Schneider Electric, which depicts the stock was trading in a downsloping parallel channel for the last 5 years and it is evident that significant peaks and troughs were formed near the upper and lower boundary of the channel pattern. However, this year the stock registered a decisive breakout from the long downsloping channel which is a bullish signal. 

The breakout from prolonging descending channel has accompanied by strong volumes which provides further confirmation and increases the reliability of the breakout. The volumes have increased significantly in the recent upmove, comparing with other instances which suggest participation by Value buyers or Big players at elevated price levels. 

The other attached focuses upon the recent price action. The recent price action indicates the stock is at the Cusp of giving a breakout from the Double Bottom price pattern. The Double Bottom price pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that mostly forms at the bottom of the ongoing trend and signals trend reversal in the price trend.

The neckline of the Double Bottom price pattern is placed around 115 levels. Thus, for the pattern to materialize well, the price needs to surpass and sustain above the neckline with supportive volumes  If it does, the stock price would register a breakout from dual bullish price patterns on the weekly scale. Also, the MACD line is trading at the highest readings which signifies the strength in price and increases the probability that price would successfully register breakout from the said bullish price-pattern.

The stock had earlier faced a strong resistance multiple times near 200 WEMA and recently the price has surpassed and is sustaining above the same which compliments a bullish signal and strength in price. Also, the stock is trading above 20-50-100 WEMAs which indicates a bullish scenario in multiple time frames. 

Thus following the above studies, I believe the stock shall gather further strength once stock surpasses and sustains above 120 levels and post that stock likely to showcase bullish trend and should scale higher towards 145-170 in coming months. While in case of correction, the stock has strong support placed around 105-98 levels. Any close beneath 93 levels, will lead to void the above-mentioned view.

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Robust Chart Setup !!!

DeltaCorp - Multi-Year Descending Channel Breakout...

The stock enjoyed a great bull run from Feb 2016 to Jan 2018, where price rallied from 50 to almost 400 levels. This tremendous rally was got arrested around 400 levels in Jan-2018, and from thereon the stock tumbled to the lowest level near 54 levels in March 2020. This means the stock almost gave all its gains which were witnessed earlier in the bull run.

The stock reversed strongly taking support near 55 levels and thereafter stock has seen a steady rally with the formation of Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The stock has so far rallied from 55 to 160+ levels post-printing the bottom in March-2020. However, following the chart set up, it suggests the stock has more room to scale higher in months to come. 

The chart attached below is the weekly chart of DeltaCorp, the prolong down move in the stock price from 2018-2020 was seen trading in Descending channel. The stock traded in the Downsloping channel and it was observed that the significant peak was formed around the higher end of the channel line and the previous bottom formed in March-2020 was also exactly placed near the lower end of the channel line.

The stock continued to trade in the channel for almost more than 2 years and in Dec-2020 price finally registered a breakout from the prolonging descending channel which suggests a bullish signal for the stock for the medium-term trend. Post breakout from the channel price rallied a bit and then saw a minor dip to test and find support near its previous resistance line. The price action hints, resumption in prior trend, and going forward price likely to hold this support zone and witness northward rally in coming months.

The next chart attached focuses on medium-term and short-term chart development to gauge the short term trend. The chart displays Pitchfork lines which are drawn connecting its previous 3 significant swing points (Marked 1-2-3). The price recently reversed taking support at the median line of Pitchfork and with that stock has also given a breakout from the probable Bullish Flag price pattern which compliments the bullish view on price and hints price likely to rally to test the higher line of the Pitchfork which is placed around 220-225 levels and coincides with its previous swing high.

The last chart attached highlights the Price-Volumes behavior and Short term moving average to gauge the trend strength of the ongoing rally so far. The price-Volume action is quite promising and robust. The volume has been above average on the updays while the volumes are lower or below average on the down days on consolidation in price, such behavior generally hints the solid strength in the trend. The price has provided respect to the short-term EMA and recently the small corrections has arrested near the average. Such instances basically show the strength in trend and mostly seen in powerful and well-built trend.

Thus following the above studies and Technical tools. I believe the stock has more legs and to rally higher in the coming weeks to test 177-205-225 in short to medium term time frame. While on the downside the support is visible around 154-146 levels. I would be cautious and review my analysis if the price fails to bring upthrust momentum and closes below 139 levels. 

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Esteem company with strong chart setup.

Godrej Inds - Attractive Chart with favorable Risk-Reward !!!

One of the prestigious and respectable company, Godrej Industries have delivered remarkable returns to their investors and had witnessed multi-fold gains from 2009-2017 period where the price rallied from 50 to 700 levels. However, post such an outstanding rally it is prudent to expect profit booking and the most probable change in the trend. 

The stock topped out in June 2017 around 700 levels and post then the price has remained under pressure and every rally in price has sold into to form new low and develop series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs. The dominance of bears continued till May 2020 where the price dropped from 700 to 230 levels. The stock formed a bottom in early May 2020 and post that stock has reversed strongly. After a strong runup from the low, the stock went into Hibernation mode and seen trading in a sideways range for many months. Looking at the chart set up its seems the stock has gathered the strength and at the cusp to resume its prior rally, which shall be witnessed in coming months.

The chart attached below is the weekly chart of Godrej Inds which highlights the breakout from the multi-month selling zone. The stock has experienced strong resistance in the zone of 440-450 levels. The stock earlier made many attempts to surpassed above the same but it failed to do. However recently the stock surpassed above the mentioned hurdle zone and closed above the same which signals strength and compliments a bullish view on price.

Also, the Price-Volumes behavior is robust and promising. The Volumes have increased on the Up-days while on the Down-days the volumes decreased and mostly has stayed below average. Such behavior signifies the Big players are still in the same and aggressive, adding position with the rise in price and Small players are getting out on small knee jerk reactions. 

The next chart attached below displays Multiple Moving averages ranging from short to medium-term time horizon which includes 20-50-100-200 moving averages. 

All the major moving averages are converging near the same juncture and after consolidating for many weeks near Multiple averages, the previous week price witnesses a strong upmove and closed above a multi-week high which denotes strength and momentum in price. The convergence of Moving averages near the same juncture shows strong support for the price. Furthermore, price trading above short to long term averages signals strength in trend.

The next chart attached below focuses on the Technical Indicators to gauge the momentum and strength in price. The first indicator attached is MACD, which denotes the MACD line has entered into the bullish territory after a good amount of time and now MACD inching higher after converging around its average which signifies strength in price. And next indicator attached in the last panel is RSI, which signals the range shift to higher reading levels which indicators momentum and compliments bullish view on price.

Thus following the above studies and other Technical tools, I believe the stock is in good strength and stock to scale newer heights in the coming months. Going ahead, stock price performs as per the expectations the stock shall rally higher to test 510-560-600 levels in short to medium term time horizon. Incase of any corrective decline, the demand force is expected to emerge around 450-435 zone. While the above view shall void if the price closes below 428 levels.

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Robust chart setup ...!!!

TVSMOTORS : SMOOTH RIDE AHEAD WITH MOMNETUM ... !!! 

This stock has been a laggard for the last couple of years and has remained under pressure from 2018-2020 (April). The stock registered bottom in April 2020 around 250 mark and has seen steady upmove thereafter till 500 levels. However, post that the stock has turned sideways and remained lackluster comparing with its peers.

Technically speaking the stock chart is promising and signals a smooth side ahead with supportive momentum. On the weekly chart, the stock has registered a breakout from a probable V-shaped pattern which is considered to be a bullish trend reversal pattern in nature and signals a trend signal going forward. Also, considering the Price-Volume action is quite bullish and injects further confidence in the trend. The volumes have increased with rising prices which is a bullish sign and complements the bullish view on price.  

The next chart attached is the Ratio chart of TVSMOTOR/CNXAUTO which displays an important pointer to note. The Ratio has been consolidated in the sideways range for the last many months and currently, the ratio has dropped to the Support zone (Highlighted in Green) which compliments a bullish view on price. Also, the momnetum indicator has dropped to a lower trendline of the channel which adds further confirmation that the Ratio likely to hold its previous support zone and to inch higher in going future.

Furthermore, The Auto sector shall witness further strength going forward and likely to outperform the benchmark index in the coming months. The next chart attached below is the Ratio of CNXAUTO/NIFTY which is throwing the bullish signal and indicating the Auto Sector would outperform the Nifty. 

From the above chart, it is evident that the Ratio has been declining from last more than 2 years and at the bottom, the ratio has developed a bullish reversal pattern. The Ratio has formed and given breakout from inv Head n Shoulder pattern which denotes bullish trend for CNX Auto index. The pattern also suggests probably the underperformance with the benchmark index is about to end and going ahead the AutoIndex shall outperform the Nifty. Furthermore, The trend oscillator attached has entered the bullish territory after a good amount of time and has reversed from Neutral reading with a bullish crossover which compliments a bullish view on price.

Thus following the above studies and other Technical tools I believe the stock has further legs to scale higher and in with the support of the Auto Index doing good, shall provide a further push in price momentum to inch higher to towards 580-630-675 levels in short to medium term. In case of any corrective decline, the demand force is expected to emerge around 500-485 levels. While the above view shall void if the price closes beneath 474 levels.

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The Dark Horse !!!

 INDUSTOWER : AT THE CUSP OF NEW BULL TREND... !?!

The stock has remained under pressure and in the Bear market for the last 3 years. The bears showed no mercy on bulls and every rise in the stock was sold into to form new lows. Stock made a peak around 480 in late 2017 and thereafter the stock has continued to decline and formed a bottom around 120 in March 2020. The bear market in the stock seems to be completed and the leadership of bulls likely to be followed for the rest of the year leading with good gains rally in this counter. 

Technically, there are multiple triggers on the Weekly chart that hint at a change in trend from bearish to bullish. The chart attached below is the weekly chart of IndusTower which highlights that stock was trading in the Descending channel when the stock was under the shadow of bears and that Channel witnessed a decisive breakout in Nov 2020, which indicates a bullish trend for medium-term trend. 

After forming a bottom around 120 levels, the stock has found a major hurdle around 235-245 zone which got conquered a few days back and the price has been comfortably trading above the same with bullish momentum and supportive volumes which suggests strength in price and compliments bullish view on price. 

From the above chart, it is evident that the stock has surpassed two major hurdles which hint there is a high probability that the good movement in price yet to come and fruitful gains shall be delivered in the coming months.

The other chart attached below denotes the Dow Theory which helps to understand the trend in security. To explain in simple words, When price forms Lower High and Lower Lows is signifies Downtrend whereas Higher Highs and Higher lows signal Uptrend or bullish trend in price. In this counter, the stock has surpassed its previous swing higher and has formed a Higher high and without breaking its previous major low, which means the price has formed a Higher low and Higher High which denoted a probable bull trend in the stock.

From the above chart, it is visible that the earlier price was forming a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows and Recently that series has broken and the price has begun forming Higher Lows and High Highs which signifies a bullish trend in the stock.

The next chart focuses on Leading Indicators and My Moving Average Band (M Bands). The Indicators are well trading in Bullish Territory which signals Momentum in trend. The Moving Average Band which was acting strong resistance earlier is now providing strong support to the price which hints at the strength in trend.  

Thus following the above studies and Technical tools I believe, A New Bull run in stock about to begin, and bullish momentum likely to be followed for the coming months. The stock has the potential to resolve higher and head towards 300-345-410 levels in a short to medium-term time horizon. In case of any corrective decline, the demand force is expected to emerge around 251-242 levels. The above-mentioned view negates if price fails to produce upthrust momnetum and closes below 229. 

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Price and Volumes breakout!

 PRESTIGE - Bulls set to show its power?!? 

The Reality stock has been in strong momentum for the last many weeks and the buzz seems likely to continue ahead. From the Reality basket, I like Prestige Estates which all the ingredients to qualify as a buy candidate with favorable Risk-Reward in place. 

The stock has been on my radar for the last few days and has been tracking closely and now I believe the stock is set to see some decent up move in the coming weeks. The stock has reversed from the confluence of support and has given a breakout with a sharp rise in volumes. Analyzing the longer-term charts, the stock has been trading and seems following one of my favorite patterns which I like to focus on.

The chart attached below highlights that stock has been trading in the Parallel channel for the last many years. The stock forms a significant bottom and top near the channel trendline and Median line trends to provide the support/resistance depending upon the trend. The present trend with a perspective of short to medium term seems bullish and the Median line is acting as an important support for the stock price. If History tends to repeat (which in my view it will) price likely to scale towards the north to test the higher trendline of the channel.

The next chart attached shows how 20WEMA has provided strong support earlier and dip in price has arrested near the same. Also, the recent up move has led the price to surpass above 50% retracement levels of its previous decline with a sharp surge in volumes and formation of bullish wide candlestick pattern which adds confidence in the price action. Furthermore, the price has recently reversed taking support at an upsloping trendline which adds further support to the price.  

For the last many week's prices has been consolidating near Magic Bands (Green Colour) and has provided strong support to the price. From recent price action, it seems the consolidation is completed or the price has gathered the strength and is set to rally higher.

The below chart is the Ratio chart of Prestige Estate & Nifty Realty index, which Signals the Ratio has dropped to an important support zone from where the Ratio has inched higher historically. The ratio chart also compliments the bullish view on price and hints Prestige Estate likely to outperform its index. The overall price structure has been also throwing the same signal as discussed above.

Thus following the above studies and Technical Tools I believe the stock has more leg to rally on the higher side. The short and medium term charts denote good strength in price and bulls likely to take the charge going forward. The levels on the higher side to watch out 330-355-390. On the lower side support is visible around 280-268. The above-mentioned view voids if the price closes below 259.

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Stock to watch for 2021 !!

 

STOCK TO WATCH FOR 2021 - TATA MOTORS 

After years of underperformance, I believe 2021 would be the year for TATAMOTORS. From the last 4 years stock has remained under the shadow of bears and every rally has been sold into to make series of lower lows. Following the chart structure and price patterns, I believe the stock shall break its underperformance and pass on the baton to bulls from bears, which took hold on for the past 4 years. 

The weekly chart attached below highlights that, the price registered a decisive breakout from the Descending resistance trendline which has proved strong resistance earlier for the stock price. This trendline has acted as strong resistance for the price in the last four years. 

The breakout occurred for the first time in late August 2020, and post that price formed a Multi-week base formation at the trendline which acted as strong support or the price. The breakout accompanied by decent volumes which compliments a bullish view on price. The breakout from base formation confirmed a change in the ongoing bear phase. The recovery from the bottom was well supported by strong volumes comparing to its historical instances which inject more confidence in the rally. 

The next chart attached is the monthly which showcases some interesting time symmetry in the earlier up and downtrend phases. For better understanding, I have shaded Large, Medium, and Small trends phases with different colors and have marked A, B, and C. 

From the above chart, it is evident that The Large Uptrend continued for 42 bars and then saw a sharp decline. Similarly, the downtrend also took 42 bars (this symmetry voids if price makes a new low). Another instance is of a Medium-term trend which is highlighted in Red color and Marked as B. The sharp decline took 7 bars and the same uptrend got over in 7 bars. The minor trend Shaded with Balck and marked as C. Where up move held for 2 bars and completed in 3 bars. Thus the discussed time symmetry suggests that the Large downtrend phase is likely over and uptrend shall continue for many months.

The last chart shown below is the weekly chart focusing on the price action of last year. The stock saw trading Downsloping parallel channel which continued for many months and recently stock registered breakout from the same which signals bullish signal for short to medium trend. Post breakout from the same price rallied higher for few days but soon witnessed profit booking draging prices lower to restest the higher trendline of the channel.

Thus following the above studies and Technical tools I believe stock has more leg to rally on the higher side. The medium and long charts signal good strength in price and bulls leadership shall continue ahead for many months. The levels on the higher side to watch out for 235-280-330. On the lower side support is visible around 177-168 levels. I would review my analysis and be cautious if the price closes below the recent low i.e. 155 levels.

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Thank you for reading. Wish all the readers a Happy, Prosperous, and Wealthy 2021..... !!!

Good Luck.

Disc. The above-shared analysis is solely my view as per my understanding and knowledge and for educational purposes. I will not be responsible for any loss or gain incurred.